Opta supercomputer sees one clear winner for Tottenham vs. Sunderland

Tottenham will host the in-form Sunderland on the Tottenham Hotspur stadium.

Tottenham suffered 10 dwelling league defeats in 2025, their joint-most in a single calendar 12 months alongside 1994 and 2003. They’ve misplaced 4 consecutive dwelling London derbies for the primary time in Premier League historical past, together with slim defeats to Fulham, Chelsea twice, and Crystal Palace. The development extends past derbies, their general dwelling kind has been catastrophic since lengthy earlier than Frank’s appointment in June.

Tottenham host Sunderland on Sunday afternoon with Opta’s supercomputer predicting a 56.1 % probability of victory for Thomas Frank’s aspect, regardless of the Lilywhites possessing one of many worst dwelling data in Premier League historical past this season.

The statistics inform a damning story. Spurs have gained simply two dwelling matches all season from 9 makes an attempt, recording 5 defeats and two attracts on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Sunderland arrive because the shock bundle of the season. Régis Le Bris has guided the Black Cats to seventh place on the midway stage, sitting on 29 factors from seven wins, eight attracts, and simply 4 losses. Their defensive group has been distinctive. The 0-0 draw with Manchester Metropolis on New 12 months’s Day showcased their resilience, although they didn’t register a single shot heading in the right direction regardless of taking part in at dwelling.

The Numbers Behind the Prediction

In line with Opta, the supercomputer offers Sunderland a 21.2 % probability of securing all three factors, with the remaining 22.7 % accounting for a draw. Primarily based purely on away kind, Sunderland sit thirteenth within the league, having gained simply two of 9 street fixtures. That modest away file gives Tottenham’s strongest argument for victory, significantly given their contrasting performances on their travels versus at dwelling.

Frank faces a severely depleted squad. Key absences embody James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, and Xavi Simons by damage, whereas Yves Bissouma is away at AFCON with Mali. Richarlison leads the goalscoring charts with seven strikes, supported by Mohammed Kudus’s six assists, however the inventive burden falls closely on too few shoulders. Randal Kolo Muani’s mortgage spell has disenchanted, with simply two Champions League targets in opposition to his mother or father membership PSG to point out for his efforts.

Sunderland face their very own choice complications. Six gamers are at AFCON, together with Simon Adingra, Habib Diarra, Bertrand Traoré, Arthur Masuaku, Reinildo Mandava, and Noah Sadiki. Striker Brian Brobbey suffered a muscle problem in opposition to Metropolis however is anticipated to be out there, whereas Daniel Ballard stays uncertain with an ankle drawback. Wilson Isidor will doubtless lead the road in Brobbey’s absence.

This represents the primary Premier League assembly between the golf equipment on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Historic head-to-head data favor Spurs considerably. They’ve gained 14 of 16 earlier dwelling conferences since 1996-97, with the exceptions being a 2-1 loss in August 2008 and a 1-1 attract November 2010. Tottenham have scored in every of their final 23 dwelling fixtures in opposition to Sunderland throughout all competitions.

But historical past means little when kind is that this poor. Frank desperately wants a response after the Brentford stalemate drew harsh criticism from travelling supporters, together with chants demanding refunds. With simply 26 factors from 19 matches, Spurs sit twelfth and face a real battle to qualify for European competitors. Sunderland’s pragmatic method underneath Le Bris may exploit each weak point in Tottenham’s fragile dwelling setup, no matter what the supercomputer predicts.