Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Parma

After the mid-week draw, AC Milan will probably be seeking to get again to profitable methods towards Parma, a workforce additionally they have to get revenge towards.

Milan are coming into a vital a part of the season, with simply 13 video games left and Inter pushing on on the prime. Briefly, they want as many factors as they will get, and after the draw within the reverse fixture, they should declare all of them towards Parma.

Massimiliano Allegri admitted throughout his presser that it gained’t be straightforward, having been impressed by what Parma have finished these days. However, the Rossoneri have the standard and thus have to carry out at their finest, as they’re required to do.

Recreation date: Sunday, February 22Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET)Venue: San SiroReferee: Marco Piccinini (VAR: Giacomo Camplone)

Staff information

In the course of the aforementioned press convention, Allegri confirmed that each one gamers are at his disposal aside from Santiago Gimenez. In different phrases, whereas a protracted absence was feared for Strahinja Pavlovic, the Serbian will grit his tooth and be on the bench tomorrow.

With him on the bench, Allegri appears set to discipline a defensive trio of Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Davide Bartesaghi. The latter stands out right here as he usually performs because the left wing-back, however he has performed within the function earlier than and may definitely do nicely there.

This resolution in all probability stems from the truth that Koni De Winter performed 90 minutes towards Como, so the gaffer may not wish to threat him so near the derby. In any case, with Bartesaghi additional down, Pervis Estupinan will get an opportunity on the left-hand facet.

On the alternative facet, Alexis Saelemaekers ought to now be prepared for 90 minutes after coming off the bench final day trip. The midfielder closest to him must be Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who missed the mid-week conflict resulting from sickness, and Adrien Rabiot can even be again within the eleven.

It appears Ardon Jashari’s spectacular mid-week show gained’t get him one other begin right here, with Luka Modric set to finish the midfield. Allegri in all probability desires a bit extra energy towards Parma somewhat than ball management, therefore the choice to go together with RLC.

Up entrance, it is going to be a battle between Christopher Nkunku and Christian Pulisic, with the American presently main the race. Allegri mentioned that he’s in a lot better situation now and that’s encouraging to listen to, given simply how vital he will be for the workforce.

Leao is the one given up entrance, however regardless of the purpose final day trip, he too should enhance and present what he’s able to. It must also be famous that Rabiot, Zachary Athekame and Youssouf Fofana are one yellow card away from suspension.

Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Bartesaghi; Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan; Pulisic, Leao.

Predicted Milan bench: Terracciano, Torriani, Athekame, Odogu, Pavlovic, De Winter, Fofana, Ricci, Jashari, Nkunku, Füllkrug.

Accidents & suspensions: Gimenez.

The opponents

All issues thought-about, it has been a reasonably first rate season for Parma. With 29 factors, they’re in twelfth place and thus fairly a good distance from the relegation zone, which is eight factors down. This has put them in a really comfy place for the season finale.

The dialogue might have been very completely different simply two video games in the past, although, as Parma are coming off two consecutive wins and thus broke free from the rapid hazard. The truth that it was two stoppage-goals winners as nicely (vs. Bologna and Hellas Verona) has absolutely boosted the boldness.

Carlos Cuesta, who was an assistant of Mikel Arteta at Arsenal, has thus finished an honest job in his first season as a head coach. The reverse fixture was additional proof of that as Parma got here from two objectives behind to attract 2-2, beginning the second half with commendable aggressiveness.

It helps when you’ve thrilling younger gamers like Adrian Bernabe (3 objectives and a couple of assists) and Mateo Pellegrini (7 objectives and 1 help). That always finally ends up being the saving grace for groups who’re predicted to battle within the backside; if you may get a couple of gamers going, that may imply an entire lot.

Curiously, whereas Cuesta was initially anticipated to implement a possession mannequin at Parma, it appears he has tailored a bit to go well with the membership’s rapid wants. The truth is, they’ve one of many lowest common possession percentages in Serie A with 44.8%, clearly comfy with a lurking function too.

The dangerous information for Parma is that Alessandro Circati, who has began each recreation he has been obtainable for this season, is suspended because of the yellow card accumulation. Mariano Troilo will probably be his alternative and though he’s not horrible, he received despatched off in his final recreation.

One other participant that may miss the sport is the beginning goalkeeper Zion Suzuki, who had been linked with Milan earlier than Mike Maignan’s renewal. I see him as a somewhat mistake-prone keeper, even when he’s able to making some good saves too, so it’s not an enormous blow for the Gialloblu.

Predicted Parma XI (5-3-2): Corvi; Britschgi, Delprato, Troilo, Valenti, Valeri; Bernabe, Nicolussi Caviglia, Keita; Strefezza, Pellegrino.

Predicted Parma bench: Rinaldi, Casentini, Drobnic, F. Carboni, Ordonez, Cremaschi, Estevez, Ondrejka, Oristanio, Sorensen, Elphege, Mikolajewski.

Accidents & suspensions: Circati, Frigan, Suzuki, Ndiaye, and Almqvist.

Face to face

Tomorrow’s encounter would be the 74th between these two groups, with Milan presently on 38 wins and Parma on 17, whereas 18 video games ended all sq.. The Rossoneri are clearly the favourites, particularly when you think about house video games, with just one defeat within the final 19 video games.

The reverse fixture was a irritating one for Allegri’s as they squandered a 2-0 lead, conceding late within the first half and early within the second. What made it even worse is that Pulisic and Saelemaekers missed one golden alternative every to revive the lead, left alone with the keeper.

The final encounter at San Siro, in the meantime, ended 3-2 after Milan scored two stoppage-time objectives (!) to clinch all three factors. Pulisic, Reijnders and Chukwueze have been the goalscorers in that one, and solely the American continues to be within the squad.

Key information and stats

➤ After their 2-2 draw earlier this season, Milan and Parma might draw each of their Serie A matches in a single season for the third time, after 1993/94 and 2007/08. Moreover, in 14 of the final 15 Serie A matches between these two sides, each groups have scored (averaging 3.9 objectives per recreation), with the one exception being Milan’s 1-0 victory on 1st December 2019.

➤ Parma are the facet towards whom AC Milan presently have their longest scoring streak in Serie A, netting in 19 consecutive matches. The Gialloblù might turn out to be solely the fourth facet, after Cagliari, Genoa and Sampdoria, towards whom the Rossoneri have scored in 20 or extra successive top-flight video games.

➤ AC Milan have gained eight of their final 10 house Serie A matches towards Parma (D1 L1), scoring a median of two.7 objectives per recreation in these encounters. Nonetheless, Parma have discovered the online in every of their final eight away video games towards the Rossoneri, having by no means reached 9 consecutive away top-flight matches scoring towards them.

➤ AC Milan are unbeaten of their final 24 Serie A matches (W15 D9) and will document a run of not less than 25 video games with out defeat in a single top-flight season for less than the second time of their historical past, after the 34-match streak that lasted all through the 1991/92 marketing campaign.

➤ Parma have collected 29 factors on this Serie A season after 25 video games – of their earlier 5 top-flight campaigns, they’ve solely registered extra factors at this stage on one event (35 in 2019-20, a season during which they completed eleventh).

➤ AC Milan have a shot conversion charge of 12.6% in Serie A, the second-highest within the competitors behind Inter (13.0%), whereas Parma are final on this rating (6.2%); the Crociati even have an Anticipated Objectives worth of 23.1, with solely Lecce having a decrease determine (20.2).

➤ Parma have scored the joint-fewest first-half objectives (seven) in Serie A this season; as well as, the Gialloblu would have simply 23 factors this marketing campaign when contemplating solely first-half outcomes – solely Pisa (20) and Fiorentina (22) have accrued fewer.

➤ Certainly one of Adrián Bernabé’s 4 Serie A objectives, all of which have come at house, together with his final towards Hellas Verona final day trip, was towards AC Milan in a 2-2 draw within the reverse fixture. The Spanish midfielder has gained 9 fouls within the ultimate third, a determine bettered by just one different midfielder in Serie A, Adrien Rabiot (12).

➤ Amongst gamers with 10+ objectives in Europe’s prime 5 leagues for the reason that begin of final season, solely Mikel Merino (64%) has scored the next proportion of headed objectives than Mateo Pellegrino (60% – six of ten); the 2001-born participant might additionally rating in consecutive Serie A appearances for the primary time.

➤ Rafael Leão has equalled his purpose tally from the entire of final season (eight objectives in 34 matches) and will rating not less than 9 Serie A objectives for the primary time since 2023/24. The Portuguese has additionally been concerned in three objectives (two objectives, one help) in his final 4 top-flight video games towards Parma, together with a purpose within the reverse fixture which was his second penalty purpose in Serie A (after scoring towards Fiorentina final October).

Ones to look at

Bartesaghi appears set to begin as a centre-back tomorrow, with Estupinan given an opportunity in his common function, and I’ve no doubts that he’ll do nicely. Now we have to do not forget that he has performed so much as a centre-back earlier than, however nonetheless it’s good to control him.

By the sounds of it, Pulisic will probably be again from begin after what can solely be described as a really robust begin to 2026. A minor discomfort changed into a full-blown drawback however it appears he’s turning a nook, and if he does begin, hopefully he can kickstart this season ultimate with a purpose.

For the away facet, Nicolussi Caviglia arrived on mortgage from Fiorentina on the finish of January and ever since his time at Venezia, he has been an attention-grabbing participant. Milan have even probed the bottom for him prior to now, so his passing should be restricted.

Then, after all, I’d be foolish to not point out Pellegrino right here. He’s Parma’s prime goalscorer and positively a menace within the aerial duels. Gabbia and his colleagues will thus must maintain a really shut eye on him within the field.

Prediction

Milan are the clear favourites, that a lot is true, and I anticipate this to be a reasonably good recreation for the Rossoneri. Marco Landucci is again within the dugout, aka Mr 100%, and the Rossoneri confirmed what they will do towards the Gialloblu within the reverse fixture once they stay concentrated.

Milan 2-0 Parma