Red Sox act on starting pitching need in acquiring Sonny Gray — but is this their big move or merely the first?

Ultimately, a dearth of beginning pitching didn’t technically sink the 2025 Pink Sox.

The membership’s crash-and-burn in opposition to the Yankees within the wild-card spherical was a product of a hot-and-cold offense going frigid at a most inopportune time. After a rousing Recreation 1 victory behind a legendary Garrett Crochet begin, Boston’s hitters grabbed melatonin gummies and conked the heck out, managing to attain a single run over the ultimate 15 innings of their season.

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However the beginning pitchers in these contests didn’t precisely save the day, both.

An premature Eleventh-hour damage to Lucas Giolito pushed Brayan Bello to begin Recreation 2 and thrust rookie southpaw Connelly Early into an sudden Recreation 3 project. Bello recorded simply seven outs. Early pitched into the fourth however surrendered 4 runs alongside the best way. Solely a heroic displaying from Boston’s bullpen saved issues shut.

Had the Sox by some means survived the Yankees, their pitching would have wanted a miracle to beat the eventual AL champion Blue Jays. Boston’s arms merely weren’t ok.

Pink Sox management, clearly, understood that actuality.

The staff’s prime government, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, didn’t pull punches through the GM conferences when requested concerning the staff’s rotation plans. “Beginning pitching,” he said bluntly when staff reporters, together with MLB.com’s Ian Browne, inquired concerning the staff’s offseason priorities. “And significantly somebody we really feel can begin alongside or slot in behind Garrett and begin a playoff recreation for us.”

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The Pink Sox have now checked that field — kind of, perhaps, sort of. It completely relies on your opinion of Sonny Grey.

On Tuesday, the veteran right-hander was traded from St. Louis to Boston in change for a pair of younger arms, Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. To push the deal throughout the end line, Grey needed to waive his no-trade clause. And crucially, the Cardinals are sending $20 million to the Pink Sox to cowl a good portion of his contract, which was reworked alongside the commerce.

Grey’s authentic 2026 wage was set at $35 million, with a $5 million buy-out for a 2027 participant choice unlikely to be activated. That association has since been altered; Grey will now be paid $31 million this season, with the buy-out rising to $10 million. In complete, Grey earns himself an additional million for waiving his no-trade clause, and the Pink Sox push a number of the money burden of his deal into the longer term.

The upshot, in spite of everything that messy math, is that using Grey will price Boston round $21 million subsequent 12 months.

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That’s an inexpensive value to pay for a pitcher with Grey’s observe report of sturdiness. He has lined 531 innings since 2023, the Eleventh-highest complete in baseball. Throughout that span — the primary 12 months of which he spent in Minnesota earlier than a free-agent deal took him to St. Louis — the 36-year-old has been a solidly above-average starter (3.63 ERA). And whereas his surface-level stats have declined steadily 12 months over 12 months, his under-the-hood numbers haven’t modified a lot.

Grey stays excellent at two of pitching’s most important duties: limiting walks and piling up strikeouts. Amongst pitchers with a minimum of 30 begins in 2025, solely Bryan Woo, Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal had higher strikeout to stroll charges. Grey additionally threw certainly one of simply 4 Madduxes this previous season (a whole recreation on fewer than 100 pitches). Regardless of his age, he’s removed from washed.

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Nonetheless, there are just a few yellow flags, particularly, Grey’s dwindling fastball velocity. His two heaters — he throws a four-seamer and a sinker — averaged simply 92 mph in 2025, placing him within the sixteenth percentile for fastball velocity. And so, unsurprisingly, Grey’s four-seamer was completely tagged by opposing batters. The pitch’s lack of zip allowed hitters to drag it within the air very often, resulting in an unsightly .585 opposing slugging proportion in opposition to his four-seamer.

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One different notable outlier about Grey: He works away to right-handed hitters extra usually than nearly each different right-handed hurler. In 2025, solely Jacob deGrom threw the next proportion of pitches (84.4%) on the outer half to righties than Grey (78.9%). That’s an indication of two issues: 1) He doesn’t have enough fastball juice to pound hitters inside anymore, and a pair of) he’s leaning on his breaking stuff consequently.

That strategy ought to mesh nicely with Boston’s offspeed-centric organizational philosophy. Count on Grey to lean much more on his curveball and sweeper in 2026, two pitches that graded out very nicely throughout his final season with St. Louis. If he can find these choices persistently and preserve his juicy fastball out of hazard, Grey ought to proceed to carry out like an affect starter.

How a lot affect? Properly, that’s the entire query.

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Should you assume Grey is a no-doubt No. 2 starter whom the Sox can slide in behind Crochet, this commerce is an enormous win. Should you assume he’s extra of a back-of-the-rotation innings sponge, you then in all probability assume Breslow wants so as to add one other frontline piece. In different phrases, Grey is the kind of arm you’d belief to begin a playoff recreation, however you’d actually desire that to be Recreation 3 or Recreation 4, not Recreation 2.

The Pink Sox paid a big value to search out out which bucket Grey falls into. Fitts, acquired from the Yankees within the 2023 Alex Verdugo deal, struggled in 2025 however profiles like a good leverage reliever or a back-of-the-rotation piece. Given he nonetheless has six years of management, that’s a invaluable piece. Clarke, although, may very well be the true prize. The tight-end-shaped southpaw, drafted within the fifth spherical by Boston in 2024, has elite uncooked stuff and completely zero thought the place it’s going. He walked nearly a batter per inning in 2025 however didn’t give up a single dwelling run and posted eye-popping strikeout charges. Clarke additionally missed a while down the stretch resulting from an damage. It’s a high-risk arm with a cathedral ceiling, and within the small likelihood that every thing clicks, Clarke has an opportunity to turn into an All-Star. He’s a pleasant get for a rebuilding Cardinals staff.

There’s additionally the $21 million now outlaid to Grey. That’s a big chunk for a Sox staff that, in latest historical past, has fought to remain under the luxurious tax. Boston would like to deliver Alex Bregman again. In the event that they don’t, one other offensive acquisition feels possible. That every one prices cash, probably precluding the Pink Sox from making one other huge addition to the rotation.

None of that’s Grey’s fault; he’s a useful piece that ought to make Boston higher. However as is so usually the case, the end result of this commerce will rely upon how the remainder of the offseason shakes out.