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Opta supercomputer reveals the favourite to win the Champions League – as one Premier League club has a slim ONE per cent chance of glory after knock-out stage draw

February 28, 2026
in Bayern Munich
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By TAMARA PRENN, SENIOR SPORTS REPORTER

Revealed: 14:56 GMT, 27 February 2026 | Up to date: 18:55 GMT, 27 February 2026

The Opta supercomputer has confirmed that Arsenal stay the favourites to say their maiden Champions League trophy after the ultimate draw for the knockout phases of the competitors passed off on Friday morning.

Mikel Arteta’s facet – who’re nonetheless Premier League frontrunners after navigating a difficult winter spell – are in competition for an unprecedented quadruple this season after a run of consecutive near-misses in recent times.

Whereas chasing the league stays a precedence for a lot of Gunners followers after successive second-place finishes, the prospect to realize main European silverware for the primary time is a tempting motivation for the squad as they enter the enterprise finish of the season.

And following Friday’s draw, probabilities of making the ultimate in Budapest seem to have solely intensified, after the north London staff had been drawn towards Bayer Leverkusen.

Ought to they progress, their Blue pathway would see them then meet both Bodo/Glimt or Sporting Lisbon within the quarter-finals.

Their semi-final opponent could possibly be one of many winners of both Newcastle versus Barcelona, or Atletico Madrid’s assembly with Tottenham.

Arsenal stay on-track to interrupt new floor at Europe’s high desk on the finish of the season

Conveniently, the final 10 winners of the Champions League – Chelsea, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Actual Madrid – are on the opposite ‘Silver’ pathway.

Regardless of being drawn amongst a pack with a stronger European pedigree nevertheless, Bayern Munich are the closest contenders to spoil Arsenal’s path, with Opta grading their 14.28 per cent probability of lifting the trophy second to the Gunners’ 27.40 per cent probability.

Followers of the English recreation shall be happy to notice that 4 of the highest six golf equipment with the best probability of claiming glory in Hungary are from the Premier League with Liverpool and Manchester Metropolis – who play Galatasaray and Actual Madrid within the spherical of 16 respectively – the third and fourth-likeliest to win the Champions League.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREDICTIONS

Arsenal – 27.40 per cent probability

Bayern Munich – 14.28 per cent probability

Liverpool – 12.83 per cent probability

Man Metropolis – 10.79 per cent probability

Barcelona – 7.72 per cent probability

Chelsea – 6.86 per cent probability

Newcastle – 4.66 per cent probability

Paris Saint-Germain – 4.64 per cent probability

Actual Madrid – 2.78 per cent probability

Sporting Lisbon – 2.73 per cent probability

Atletico Madrid – 2.00 per cent probability

Tottenham – 1.22 per cent probability

Liverpool, who would then play the winner of Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea, have a 12.83 per cent probability, narrowly edging Man Metropolis, who’ve a ten.79 per cent probability.

Chelsea spherical out the cohort, with a considerably smaller 6.86 per cent probability, however the Blues shall be assured heading into their match-up with the title-holders having overwhelmed them roundly within the Membership World Cup last final July.

Newcastle simply miss out on making the highest six with their 4.66 per cent probability of successful the trophy, having navigated their approach by a one-sided play-off match-up with Azerbaijan facet Qarabag.

The remaining Premier League staff nonetheless in play in Europe’s high membership competitors, Tottenham, have a slender 1.22 per cent probability.

Igor Tudor’s injury-ravaged squad will seemingly throw full focus onto avoiding relegation one season on from successful the Europa League, with Atletico – who’ve a 2.00 per cent probability of successful the trophy – the favourites to make it into the quarter-finals.

Arsenal romped by the league part to complete high of the desk within the new-look mannequin, with Liverpool, Man Metropolis, and Chelsea additionally qualifying mechanically.

Of the favourites for the title, solely PSG had been compelled to endure a extra arduous path to the spherical of 16, sneaking a win over two legs towards Ligue 1 rivals Monaco 5-4 on combination.

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