Is European qualification too punishing for major nations?

By Martin Graham

Italy supervisor Gennaro Gattuso entered the worldwide window already dissatisfied, and his irritation solely grew earlier than the loss to Norway confirmed Italy’s path to the 2026 World Cup would once more rely upon knockout ties. For a rustic that failed to achieve the finals in each 2018 and 2022 resulting from playoff exits, the prospect of one other high-risk path understandably issues Italian supporters.

The expanded event in the US, Mexico, and Canada will characteristic 48 nations for the primary time subsequent summer time. Regardless of gathering six victories throughout eight matches, Italy completed behind Norway and now faces two one-off fixtures to safe a spot on the finals they famously lifted in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006.

Gattuso argued that robust group type ought to assure qualification. He pointed to South America’s six direct entries and Africa’s 9 spots as examples of techniques that, in his view, give different areas a smoother path to the World Cup.

Nonetheless, some factors he raised had been inaccurate. Africa had three representatives in 1994, not two, and South America’s seventh-placed crew will not be assured a gathering with Oceania. Moreover, runners-up didn’t all the time qualify outright in 1990, with Denmark lacking out that yr.

Does Europe face a more durable highway?

European qualifying has grown extra advanced because the variety of taking part nations has risen. In 1990, 32 sides competed for locations; by 1994, that quantity had elevated to 39. As we speak, 54 groups are trying to say considered one of 16 World Cup slots. As participation expanded, sustaining bigger teams turned impractical.

A bunch containing six or seven groups would require extra matchdays than exist within the present worldwide schedule. To make the calendar sustainable, UEFA opted for smaller teams, decreasing journey and depth—sarcastically contradicting Gattuso’s argument for a format change.

Italy, seeded highest of their group, was positioned alongside Norway, a quickly enhancing aspect that defeated them twice with a mixed rating of seven–1. Though the system could also be unforgiving, Italy didn’t assist themselves in probably the most important matches.

How does South America examine?

On the floor, South America’s path seems simpler. Ten nations compete; six qualify straight, and a seventh strikes on to the intercontinental play-offs. That quantities to 60% of groups progressing, in contrast with underneath 30% from Europe.

However the area’s aggressive panorama differs. Eight of the ten nations rank inside the world’s high 50, and even the lowest-rated aspect, Bolivia, holds the next place than many European nations. The fixture checklist can also be demanding: groups journey lengthy distances throughout 9 worldwide home windows and play twice every break, usually towards elite opposition.

Brazil superior with six defeats, however they confronted a far stronger common opponent than Italy, whose hardest adversary in the beginning of the marketing campaign ranked forty third.

Africa’s rising illustration

Africa’s allocation rose to 9 qualifiers for 2026. Aside from debutant Cape Verde, the continent’s representatives—resembling Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, and Ivory Coast—are established presences at main tournaments. Six of those nations occupy top-50 positions, with Ghana the bottom at 73rd.

Statistically, Africa holds round 21% of the assured locations whereas supplying 14% of the highest 50 groups, a slight over-allocation however not one which strongly contradicts advantage. Against this, Europe accounts for almost half of the world’s top-ranked nations however receives solely a 3rd of the slots, a noticeable discount from over 50% within the Nineteen Nineties.

The confederation with probably the most disproportionate improve is Asia, which now receives eight direct entries regardless of having solely 4 groups inside the highest 50.

Is Gattuso justified or just dissatisfied?

Gattuso’s issues include fragments of reality, significantly relating to the shrinking European share of World Cup locations. But his argument downplays Europe’s structural benefits and overlooks Italy’s on-field shortcomings. Whereas the numbers present some imbalance in world distribution, sympathy for Italy is proscribed given their repeated struggles in decisive video games.