The biggest X factor in favor of Bayern Munich against Real Madrid in Champions League

The stage is about for a defining evening in Munich as Bayern Munich look to complete the job in opposition to Actual Madrid and safe a spot within the UEFA Champions League semifinals.

Bayern’s 2-1 victory within the first leg final week did extra than simply give them a bonus within the tie. It ended an extended stretch of frustration in opposition to Madrid, a run that had seen the German giants fail to win in 9 consecutive conferences.

Much more important, it marked their first victory on the Santiago Bernabéu in 25 years. The final time Bayern discovered success there got here throughout the 2000-01 semifinals, after they managed to win each legs of the tie on their approach to lifting the trophy.

Bayern has an opportunity to copy a uncommon achievement

Now, underneath supervisor Vincent Kompany, Bayern have an opportunity to copy that uncommon achievement. The situation strongly favors the Bundesliga aspect. Traditionally, Bayern have been extraordinarily dependable when defending a first-leg lead after successful away from dwelling. Within the Champions League alone, they’ve superior in 21 of twenty-two such conditions.

Increasing that throughout all European competitions, the report improves to 29 out of 30. The one exception got here within the 2010-11 spherical of 16 in opposition to Inter Milan, when the now-defunct away targets rule labored in opposition to them regardless of a 3-2 second-leg win.

Past historical past, Bayern may also lean on their present kind at dwelling. The Allianz Area has been a fortress on this season’s Champions League marketing campaign. Bayern have gained all 5 of their dwelling matches, outscoring opponents 16-3. Their total dwelling report within the competitors is equally spectacular, with only one loss of their final 28 matches on the stadium. That consistency offers them a robust basis heading right into a high-stakes second leg.

Madrid is aware of the best way to compete at Munich

Nevertheless, the opponent complicates the equation. Actual Madrid’s monitor report in Munich is best than most visiting groups. For the reason that 2013-14 season, Madrid have gained three of their 4 matches on the Allianz Area, a degree of success matched solely by a handful of Bundesliga rivals over a bigger pattern measurement. That historical past serves as a reminder that Bayern’s benefit, whereas important, is way from safe.

The matchup itself is prone to be outlined by execution underneath strain. Bayern might want to steadiness management with aggression, avoiding the temptation to sit down too deep whereas defending their lead. Madrid, identified for his or her capacity to ship in decisive moments, might be trying to exploit any lapse in focus.

For Bayern, the chance is obvious. They’ve already taken a significant step by successful in Madrid, one thing that had eluded them for many years. Now, with the help of their dwelling crowd and a robust monitor report in related conditions, they’re in place to shut out the tie.