Relegation picture tightens as survival hopes flicker

By Martin Graham

Not way back, the battle on the foot of the Premier League desk appeared settled. West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Burnley appeared sure for the Championship because the marketing campaign drifted towards its latter phases.

The opening weeks of 2026 have altered that temper. A handful of outcomes have injected perception into golf equipment beforehand written off, even when the arithmetic nonetheless look daunting for these occupying the bottom positions.

West Ham, specifically, has proven renewed life. A single victory in 10 outings earlier than the New Yr gave method to a morale elevate within the FA Cup towards Queens Park Rangers on 11 January, adopted by league successes over Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland. These outcomes trimmed the gap to Seventeenth-placed Nottingham Forest to 6 factors, regardless of a late setback at Chelsea.

Burnley’s current attracts with Liverpool and Tottenham hinted at resilience, but a heavy loss at Sunderland on Monday stored them firmly rooted close to the underside, 11 factors from security. Wolves, in the meantime, nonetheless seem destined for relegation, though a modest enchancment has not less than steered them away from the file for the lowest-ever Premier League factors return.

Historical past provides little consolation to these chasing security

Previous seasons recommend how arduous it’s to flee as soon as hassle deepens. Throughout 33 accomplished Premier League campaigns since 1992, solely 9 groups have managed to overturn a niche of six factors or extra after reaching the 23-game mark.

Aston Villa in 2019-20, Leicester Metropolis in 2014-15, and Sunderland in 2013-14 are the newest examples, every recovering from a seven-point shortfall. Their achievements underline the size of the duty now dealing with this season’s strugglers.

Statistical fashions underline that problem. After the most recent spherical of fixtures, Wolves got a survival chance of simply 0.02%, with Burnley marginally greater at 2.02%. West Ham fare higher by comparability, but their prospects nonetheless stand at solely 17.06%.

A forthcoming conflict with Burnley provides the Hammers a possibility to construct additional perception. Having already exceeded expectations in current weeks, they’re starting to resemble a crew taking part in with out worry, conscious that little is predicted however lots stays doable.

Mid-table nervousness spreads past the drop zone

The battle will not be restricted to the present backside three. In reality, seven golf equipment stay in danger because the season enters its last stretch.

Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, Crystal Palace, and Tottenham Hotspur all hover inside attain of hazard. Spurs sit highest of that group in 14th, holding 29 factors after a spirited comeback draw towards Manchester Metropolis on Sunday.

That end result moved Thomas Frank’s facet 9 factors away from West Ham with 14 matches left. Even so, their current file tells its personal story, with solely three factors taken from the earlier 5 league fixtures earlier than dealing with Metropolis.

Elsewhere, Crystal Palace seem significantly weak. The Eagles have didn’t register a win in 12 matches throughout all competitions, following the sale of captain Marc Guehi to Manchester Metropolis and with supervisor Oliver Glasner as a consequence of depart at season’s finish.

Forest occupy the spot nearest the relegation line, six factors forward of West Ham and stage with Leeds in sixteenth. With momentum shifting and strain mounting, the closing months promise a tense combat the place survival could hinge on nice margins.

Martin Graham is an MFF sports activities author