Allegri’s obvious tonic for Milan’s chronic issue

AC Milan have made an encouraging begin to the season, not less than as regards to fixing what has been their greatest defect over the previous three seasons.

When Milan conceded twice at dwelling towards Cremonese within the first Serie A recreation of the season, it appeared troublesome to think about that after three video games we’d be speaking about statistically among the best defences in Europe.

But, over the four-game pattern measurement that we have now accessible, Massimiliano Allegri’s stamp on this staff can already be seen. He desires to construct a strong platform from which to flourish, and meaning patching up a leaky rearguard.

To date, so good

The Rossoneri trustworthy had been shocked when a newly-promoted facet netted twice at San Siro and emerged with three factors. It felt like a dagger by way of the season’s ambitions after simply 90 minutes: how may Allegri not even get something towards presumed ‘minnows’.

Quick-forward to Sunday evening, round 23:00 CEST, and Bologna had been trudging off the identical discipline having not even managed a shot on track in 99 minutes of play, together with stoppage time. It was a 3rd clear sheet in 4 aggressive video games for Milan, who’ve conceded as soon as in simply shy of 400 minutes.

The comparability with final season reveals the development, too. Paulo Fonseca’s males – after three video games within the league – had already conceded 53 pictures in whole. Opponents had been averaging 1.79 xG (Anticipated Targets) per recreation, and the defensive file can be the Portuguese’s undoing partially.

In 2025-26 up to now, the opposite staff have solely shot at Milan’s aim 16 instances and that xG determine stands at 0.23 per recreation. In these two classes – pictures and Anticipated Targets towards – the Diavolo are head and shoulders above the remainder of the continent.

#ACMilan have conceded the least xG (Anticipated Targets) per 90 of any staff in Europe’s prime 5 leagues (0.23) up to now in 2025-26.

They’ve additionally conceded the least pictures cumulatively of any European facet, with 16.

[via @Gazzetta_it] pic.twitter.com/BoCwyncEVc

– A lot (@ACMAPHAPTA) September 17, 2025

There are some apparent issues to contemplate, similar to power of opponent. Milan have confronted two robust relegation candidates (not less than per the bookmakers) and nonetheless conceded twice in a single recreation, whereas Bologna have solely scored one aim all 12 months so they don’t seem to be precisely firing.

And but, within the ‘prime 5’ European leagues – wherein 98 groups compete – the opposite 97 usually are not shut. The second-highest variety of pictures conceded is St. Pauli (with 23), second within the Bundesliga, however even they’ve seven greater than Milan.

Taking a look at Anticipated Targets Towards – which measures the standard of probabilities given to opponents – Nantes are second at 0.46. That’s double the quantity that the Rossoneri have. The conclusion is apparent: any staff in Europe provides not less than twice as many scoring probabilities as Allegri’s.

Consistency is vital

It was 11 months in the past that we printed a Satan’s Advocate column which addressed simply how problematic it was that Fonseca couldn’t choose a primary alternative again 4. He by no means did, and he solely lasted one other 15 video games or so from that piece.

It wasn’t only a Fonseca factor, although. Milan let in 69 targets throughout all competitions in 2023-24 and 49 in Serie A alone. Having to persistently depend on the assault to attain targets in bunches was not sustainable, as Stefano Pioli discovered when he finally misplaced his job.

In actual fact, it was through the post-Scudetto season of 2022-23 that we first introduced a specific downside to mild, which was that resulting from a mix of accidents and rotations Milan had been failing to call a settled line of defense from one recreation to the following.

The title-winning marketing campaign was made potential by being robust on the again, as Milan let in simply two targets within the ultimate 11 league video games of the season, with 9 clear sheets. Why? Largely as a result of the identical quartet had been the bedrock.

Davide Calabria was the right-back, Pierre Kalulu was the correct centre-back, Fikayo Tomori was subsequent to him because the left-sided central defender after which Theo Hernandez was the left-back. The extra they performed collectively the extra understanding bred and the extra watertight they turned.

Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlovic. Milan followers have nearly obtained used to glancing previous the again 4 gamers when studying the beginning XI announcement is made, and that could be a actually good factor. Even Alexis Saelemaekers and Pervis Estupinan have been mounted barring one recreation the place the Belgian was performed larger.

We’d solely be repeating what was stated earlier than, however having a longtime and settled three/five-man defence helps Allegri construct what he desires above all else: stability. The deserves of every particular person defender may be and have been debated, although as a unit they appear to be rising weekly.

What was additionally apparent towards Bologna is that Milan have developed a streetwise edge too, typical of Max’s groups. They know the moments of video games to let the opponent have the ball and nearly tire themselves out. The rearguard typically bends, however it doesn’t break.

That’s refreshing, as a result of too many instances previously three years it has parted just like the crimson sea on the first little bit of strain, folding like a wave. There’s a very primary however profound precept in soccer: if you don’t concede, you can not lose.

With Milan’s attacking expertise on the different finish – and even the new-found midfield management – they may win the overwhelming majority of video games wherein they don’t let a aim in. That, in itself, is a profitable alchemy that even essentially the most ardent Allegri sceptics can not deny.

What comes now?

The coach stated one thing very attention-grabbing in his post-match press convention following the victory towards the Rossoblu just a few days in the past. In response to a query about this being the Milan he had in thoughts, the very first thing he uttered instructed a narrative.

“If we wish to end within the prime 4, we have to concede a sure variety of targets. We created probabilities and performed an excellent recreation. Even when Bologna had management, we didn’t concede something and stayed organised,” he stated.

It doesn’t take a codebreaker to grasp that Allegri and the staff have a goal quantity in thoughts on the subject of targets conceded. Maybe it’s to concede lower than one aim per recreation on common. His unveiling presser additionally spoke volumes.

“Within the final 20 years there has solely been one season the place the most effective defence didn’t win the league: Sarri’s 12 months at Juve when he conceded 43 targets. An awesome staff scores 60 to 80 targets, in the event you concede 40 you’ll be able to’t get into the highest 4.”

The beginning has been good, so count on extra of the identical, as a result of Allegri has settled on what he believes to be an excellent combine. Spherical pegs seem like in spherical holes: Tomori and Pavlovic look good as outdoors centre-backs, and Gabbia has all the time been a pure center anchor.

🛡 Three clear sheets out of 4🥇 Least pictures conceded of any staff in Europe🥇 Least xG towards of any staff in Europe

🔧 Has Allegri mounted #ACMilan’s defence? Inform us your ideas 👇 pic.twitter.com/5l8ce7ImTq

– AlwaysMilantv (@sempremilantv) September 17, 2025

The primary problem could be simply across the nook. Pavlovic went off at half-time within the win over Bologna with what was reportedly a flexor subject, and whereas scans have dominated out any severe muscle damage, he’s unlikely to play towards Udinese on Saturday.

So, Allegri should make his first change to the again three. Fortunately, Koni De Winter is anyone that he is aware of very nicely from his time at Juventus and he handed the 45-minute take a look at towards the Rossoblu with out being observed (which, as a central defender, is a optimistic factor).

With Udinese and Lecce (Coppa Italia) on the horizon, the goal is evident: two extra clear sheets. After that the litmus checks towards Napoli, Juventus, Fiorentina, Atalanta, Roma, Inter and Lazio all await, who the Rossoneri play in a nine-game stretch earlier than the tip of November.

Greater examinations of the brand new defensive unit are ready on the horizon, subsequently. A tour de pressure is greatest approached with certainties in place, and Milan will hope that Allegri’s new defence would be the greatest one.