The Numbers Game: Arsenal´s stubborn rearguard goes up against Liverpool´s fierce attack

Someway, Liverpool have most factors from their opening two Premier League video games.

That’s regardless of throwing away 2-0 leads in opposition to each Bournemouth and the ten males of Newcastle United.

Federico Chiesa turned the sport from the bench in opposition to Bournemouth at Anfield on August 16, after which Rio Ngumoha grew to become the fourth-youngest scorer in Premier League historical past to seal a outstanding 3-2 win over Newcastle on Monday.

Liverpool are the primary aspect to win each of their opening two video games of an English top-flight season regardless of conceding a number of targets in every since Newcastle in 1960-61. The Magpies went on to be relegated that marketing campaign.

All of us wish to make sweeping statements simply two video games into a brand new season. This time period, it appears that evidently Liverpool’s firepower is getting a weak defence out of bother.

Arne Slot appeared to criticise the physicality and depth with which Newcastle performed in that ill-tempered encounter at St James’ Park, however it ought to be famous that Liverpool dedicated 15 of the sport’s 32 fouls (which is a excessive mark for the Premier League to this point this season, albeit it’s a small pattern dimension).

And in relation to physicality and fierce defending, there aren’t many groups higher than Liverpool’s subsequent opponents –– perennial practically males Arsenal.

The stress, no less than from some quarters within the media, is seemingly on Mikel Arteta to go one step additional this season after ending second within the high flight in every of the previous three campaigns.

Arsenal have spent huge on Viktor Gyokeres to rectify their want for a striker, whereas they’ve added former Liverpool goal Martin Zubimendi to their midfield and Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze to the assault.

However it’s on the again that Arsenal proceed to shine. They’ve stored two clear sheets, beating Manchester United 1-0 and Leeds United 5-0, whereas their anticipated targets in opposition to (xGA) is 1.7 – the fifth-lowest within the division.

So, it’s a stern defence going up in opposition to a superb assault in Sunday’s early-season tussle between two probably title contenders. Certainly, that is the earliest the earlier season’s high two sides are assembly in a Premier League marketing campaign since 2017-18, when Chelsea gained 2-1 at Tottenham in matchweek two.

Utilizing Opta knowledge, we preview Sunday’s conflict between Liverpool and Arsenal.

What’s anticipated?

Liverpool should be cautious. They could have two wins from two, however their latest document in opposition to Arsenal just isn’t good – the Reds are literally winless in six Premier League encounters with the Gunners (D4 L2), which is their longest winless run in opposition to Arsenal since a run of eight between October 2007 and April 2011.

Nonetheless, Arsenal have a poor document at Anfield, the place they’re winless in 12 video games since a 2-0 victory in September 2012, which noticed Arteta begin within the guests’ midfield.

The final three Premier League video games between Liverpool and Arsenal at Anfield have all been drawn, and the Opta supercomputer is anticipating one other tight encounter.

Liverpool are backed because the favourites, with a 44.9% win chance.

Arsenal, in the meantime, have a 29.7% likelihood of taking all three factors, whereas this match completed stage in 25.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.

And regardless of Arsenal’s glorious defensive document, it is best to count on targets on this one.

Solely Liverpool versus Tottenham (206) has seen extra targets, amongst all Premier League fixtures, than Arsenal in opposition to Liverpool (198).

For the reason that 2015-16 marketing campaign, it has seen probably the most targets of any fixture (78 in 20 video games).

Arne’s Slotters

It feels ridiculous to be overly crucial of Liverpool given they’ve a 100% document, however Slot should know that his crew will not be performing to their most, and that should change if they’re to take care of their (im)good begin.

However though we have now touched on Liverpool’s unusually leaky defence, Slot’s crew have been glorious going ahead, as they’ve been for the reason that Dutchman took cost.

Actually, Liverpool have discovered the web in 98% of their Premier League matches underneath Slot (39/40) – the very best share of video games scored in by any supervisor with 15 or extra video games within the competitors’s historical past.

The Reds have scored 93 league targets for the reason that begin of final season. They’ve netted 17 greater than some other top-flight crew in that point, whereas additionally having the very best xG (86.4).

Liverpool are actually on the joint-third-longest Premier League scoring streak, having netted of their final 36 video games within the competitors. Solely Arsenal (55 between 2001 and 2002) and Tottenham (39 between 2023 and 2024) have scored in additional consecutive matches within the competitors, and Slot’s crew are approaching a full calendar 12 months since they final failed to search out the web in a top-flight recreation (0-1 versus Nottingham Forest on September 14, 2024).

A purpose on this recreation would see Liverpool set a brand new membership document, after the Reds additionally went 36 successive video games with a purpose underneath Jurgen Klopp between 2019 and 2020.

Liverpool had been scientific within the excessive in opposition to Newcastle, scoring from three of their 5 makes an attempt. Certainly, after the Reds scored their second purpose via Hugo Ekitike within the forty sixth minute, they didn’t have one other try till Ngumoha curled dwelling deep into stoppage time.

On high of their scoring streak, Liverpool additionally love a late purpose. They’ve gained extra Premier League video games through last-minute targets than some other aspect within the historical past of the competitors, with Ngumoha’s strike being their forty sixth. Arsenal rank second on the checklist with 34.

It was a teenage dream for Ngumoha, who grew to become simply the second 16-year-old to attain a profitable purpose in a Premier League recreation, after Wayne Rooney in October 2002 for Everton, versus Arsenal.

Harm considerations hampering Arteta?

Arsenal’s 5-0 defeat of Leeds did come at a price, with Arteta shedding each Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka to damage.

Saka went off with a hamstring drawback simply earlier than Gyokeres opened his Arsenal account to make it 3-0 to the Gunners, whereas Odegaard had gone off with a shoulder drawback within the first half.

Saka is now set for round a month on the sidelines, in response to experiences, and he was neglected of Thomas Tuchel’s newest England squad on Friday.

Odegaard, in the meantime, was named in Norway’s squad for his or her upcoming fixtures and there’s extra hope concerning his potential participation.

Visiting the champions with out Saka would put much more pressure on Arsenal’s defence, in fact, so it’s a good job for Arteta that the Gunners have been so resolute.

When Saka has not featured for Arsenal within the league since he broke into the crew, the Gunners’ common targets per recreation drops to 1.5, in comparison with 2.0 with the England winger within the aspect.

With out their most enterprising extensive participant, there will likely be much more stress on Arsenal to create possibilities from set-pieces.

For the reason that begin of 2023-24, Arsenal have scored 33 nook targets within the Premier League – greater than some other aspect in Europe’s huge 5 leagues in that timeframe. The Gunners have additionally scored from a nook of their final three video games – they’ve by no means executed so in 4 video games in a row earlier than.

And if Arteta’s crew had been to come back away with a win and a clear sheet, it will be the primary time Arsenal have gained their opening three league matches with out conceding since 1924-25.

Eze, in the meantime, will hope to make his debut following his big-money transfer from Crystal Palace. He has already overwhelmed Liverpool as soon as this season, with the Eagles having overcome the Reds within the Group Protect.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Ekitike, with three targets within the house of three aggressive matches for Liverpool, has made a flying begin to life in England, whereas Salah – by his lofty requirements – has been stored comparatively quiet.

But the Egyptian nonetheless scored in opposition to Bournemouth and teed up Liverpool’s winner at Newcastle. Salah (272 for Liverpool) now ranks outright second, behind Rooney (276 for Manchester United) in relation to Premier League purpose involvements for one membership.

Salah has additionally plundered 30 of Liverpool’s top-flight targets underneath Slot, whereas he additionally leads the Reds’ squad for xG (25.6), assists (19) and purpose involvements (49) in that point. He has netted 11 Premier League targets in opposition to Arsenal, with solely Harry Kane (14) and Rooney (12) scoring extra in opposition to the Gunners.

One in all Salah’s targets in opposition to the Gunners got here for Chelsea, whereas the opposite 10 have been for Liverpool – solely Roberto Firmino has extra in opposition to Arsenal for the Reds (11).

Arsenal – Viktor Gyokeres

Gyokeres was the main scorer in Europe’s high 10 leagues in 2024-25, plundering 39 Primeira Liga targets, eight greater than next-best Kylian Mbappe.

Certainly, solely Salah (47) registered extra purpose involvements in Europe’s high 10 leagues than Gyokeres (46).

Nonetheless, thriving within the Portuguese recreation with Sporting CP is totally different to hitting it off within the Premier League, so the Sweden worldwide may have been delighted to get off the mark with a double in opposition to Leeds.

His brace got here after a irritating debut in opposition to Man Utd, by which he didn’t have a single shot in a league recreation for the primary time since April 2023, for Coventry Metropolis in opposition to Blackburn Rovers within the Championship. That ended a run of 69 league appearances by which he had registered no less than one try.

Grabbing a purpose at Anfield will surely assist Gyokeres show he’s as much as the duty.