CONCACAF Gold Cup: With USA and Canada hit by absences, can anyone stop Mexico?

The World Cup will return to North America subsequent yr, with america, Mexico and Canada sharing host duties for the most important event in world sport.

Whereas the 2025 Membership World Cup, to be held throughout the USA, serves as one thing of a costume rehearsal for most of the venues for the World Cup, not one of the host nations will need to go away something to likelihood on the pitch.

So whereas some gamers produce other commitments, the CONCACAF Gold Cup represents an vital milestone for every of the USA, Mexico and Canada.

El Tri will look to defend the crown they gained in Los Angeles two years in the past and, within the course of, turn out to be the primary 10-time winners of North America’s premier worldwide event.

Mauricio Pochettino’s honeymoon interval as USA head coach ended with March’s humiliating defeat to Panama within the CONCACAF Nations League, and the previous Tottenham and Chelsea coach must see progress at this event.

Jesse Marsch, in the meantime, has had a constructive impression since taking the Canada job and is seeking to construct on an encouraging fourth-place end on the 2024 Copa America.

With big-name absences opening up the potential for an unpredictable event, we stay up for the Gold Cup and ship the Opta supercomputer’s predictions.

THE CONTENDERS

Mexico

This would be the nineteenth version of the Gold Cup because it was rebranded from the CONCACAF Championship in 1991. Mexico have gained half of the earlier 18, ending as runners-up twice and by no means failing to make the final eight.

El Tri have each proper to view this as their competitors, and their success within the 2024-25 CONCACAF Nations League underlined their standing as prime canines in North America.

Raul Jimenez scored a brace to fireside them previous Panama within the Nations League last three months in the past, and he joins AC Milan’s Santiago Gimenez and West Ham’s Edson Alvarez in one of many event’s extra skilled squads.

Jimenez has loved a renaissance with Fulham, netting 12 Premier League objectives in 2024-25 after a return of seven in 2023-24. He solely scored 10 in whole throughout his last three seasons with Wolves (2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-33), having suffered a cranium fracture in 2020.

On the different finish, Mexico have recalled iconic goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, who has gained 151 caps and boasts extra Gold Cup appearances than some other participant (25). Ochoa additionally holds the report for many titles gained on the event, lifting the trophy 5 occasions in six participations.

Hirving Lozano was additionally set to return to the fold after a robust begin to life in MLS with San Diego FC, for whom he has 5 objectives and 5 assists. Nonetheless, a hamstring damage prompted the previous PSV and Napoli attacker to withdraw from the squad.

Now in his third spell as Mexico’s head coach, Javier Aguirre beforehand led his nation to Gold Cup glory in 2009. His quest for a repeat triumph begins towards the Dominican Republic on June 14, with Suriname and Costa Rica their different Group A foes.

Regardless of two Mexican golf equipment participating within the Membership World Cup, El Tri have confronted far much less disruption than their rivals and warrant their standing as favourites.

United States

When Pochettino was confirmed as Gregg Berhalter’s successor final September, his arrival was hailed as a significant coup for U.S. Soccer.

The USA gained 5 of their first six video games underneath Pochettino, however that momentum got here crashing to a halt when defeats to Panama and Mexico noticed them end fourth within the Nations League. Pochettino is aware of their performances on dwelling soil over the subsequent few weeks should be higher, although he can be working with an inexperienced squad.

Christian Pulisic has chosen to skip the competitors to relaxation, whereas Monaco’s Folarin Balogun has joined Fulham left-back Antonee Robinson on the damage checklist.

The USA can even be with out the Golden Boot winner of the 2023 Gold Cup, with Jesus Ferreira representing the Seattle Sounders on the Membership World Cup.

Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna, Tim Weah and Yunus Musah are additionally out. Veteran defender Tim Ream is the one outfielder of their squad with greater than 50 caps (69), with none of their forwards possessing greater than 16.

Pochettino appeared pissed off when discussing the problem in an interview with Tim Howard and Landon Donovan for Unfiltered Soccer, saying: “Individuals have to prioritise the nationwide workforce. Lionel Messi, Neymar, [Kylian] Mbappe, we had been working with these guys, even Harry Kane… these guys are determined to go to the nationwide workforce.”

These absences do imply loads of fringe gamers have an opportunity to power their means into Pochettino’s World Cup squad.

Brian White is a late bloomer, having scored his first objective for the USA on the age of 28 years and 354 days in January. Solely Tai Baribo (13 objectives) and Sam Surridge (11) have outscored the Vancouver Whitecaps frontman in MLS this yr, with White’s 10 objectives coming from 7.5 anticipated objectives (xG).

The one different American in double figures for objectives and assists mixed in MLS this season is Diego Luna, and the Actual Salt Lake star may begin in a quantity 10 position.

The USA will face Trinidad and Tobago, visitor members Saudi Arabia and Haiti in Group D. Ought to they make the highest two, they may face a quarter-final reunion with Panama, who’ve been a thorn of their aspect these days.

Twelve months in the past, Panama beat Berhalter’s USA aspect within the second sport of their Copa America marketing campaign, a consequence that finally condemned them to a group-stage exit.

Canada

Canada’s solely Gold Cup success got here again in 2000, and so they have solely gone so far as the ultimate 4 on three different events (2002, 2007 and 2021).

However they are going to be optimistic relating to their hopes in 2025, having completed fourth finally yr’s Copa America after dropping 2-0 to eventual champions Argentina within the semi-finals.

Canada proved they’ve what it takes to compete with the massive boys in that final-four encounter, registering 25 touches within the Argentina penalty space to simply 13 by the world champions.

They had been additionally moments away from overcoming Uruguay within the third-place play-off, however Luis Suarez’s 92nd-minute leveller compelled a penalty shoot-out that the Celeste gained 4-3.

Canada had been additionally aggressive within the Nations League, dropping 2-0 to Mexico within the semis, then beating the USA 2-1 to complete third, and Marsch has ambitiously declared that nothing lower than lifting the Gold Cup will represent success.

Just like the USA, they are going to be with out their poster boy, with Alphonso Davies rupturing his cruciate ligament in March, however Jonathan David can be concerned.

David has a number of suitors after the expiration of his contract with Lille, and although a few of these are concerned within the Membership World Cup, the striker can be representing his nation.

David – who averages greater than a objective each different sport for Canada (34 in 63 caps) – scored 87 objectives in 178 Ligue 1 appearances for Lille. Since his debut in August 2020, solely Mbappe has extra objectives within the French top-flight (111).

Canada can be large favourites in Group B as they arrive up towards Honduras, El Salvador and Curacao, with their opening sport being performed on dwelling soil in Vancouver.

OTHER STORIES TO WATCH

The likes of Brazil (in 1996, 1998 and 2003), Colombia (2000 and 2005), South Korea (2002) and Qatar (2021) have beforehand guested on the Gold Cup, with all making a minimum of the ultimate 4.

However no visitor nation (or certainly, anybody aside from Mexico, the USA or Canada) has ever lifted the trophy, and Saudi Arabia are the newest newbies to attempt their luck.

The truth that they solely reached the final 16 finally yr’s Asia Cup, additionally happening to Oman within the 2024-25 Gulf Cup, doesn’t bode nicely for his or her possibilities.

They are going to be with out Salem Al-Dawsari – the hero of their 2022 World Cup upset of Argentina – as a result of Al-Hilal’s Membership World Cup participation, that means he should wait to carry up his century of caps.

He ended the Saudi Professional League season with 30 objective involvements for Al-Hilal (15 objectives, 15 assists), outdoing Al-Nassr’s Cristiano Ronaldo by two and matching Karim Benzema’s haul for Al-Ittihad, and is bound to be an enormous miss.

Panama are one other workforce to observe. Along with their two current victories over the USA, Thomas Christiansen’s males had been moments away from taking Mexico to further time within the Nations League last, solely to concede a stoppage-time penalty to Jimenez.

Panama had been additionally runners-up to Mexico on the 2023 Gold Cup – their third silver medal on the event.

Captain Anibal Godoy, a 148-cap veteran, has impressed for San Diego this yr, rating third amongst midfielders for profitable passes, with 938.

PREDICTION

The Opta supercomputer has Mexico down because the favourites to raise the trophy, successful it in 30.1% of the pre-tournament simulations. They’re additionally the most definitely to succeed in the quarter-finals (94.6%), the semi-finals (63.0%) and the ultimate (46.5%).

Regardless of their absentees, the USA are second favourites to win the Gold Cup, and are given a 27.1% likelihood. They’re solely marginally behind Mexico all through the knockout levels, and have a 44.1% likelihood of reaching the showpiece.

Canada are given a 12.6% likelihood of ruling North and Central America, and are sturdy favourites to make it by to the ultimate 4, which is when they’ll look to upset the chances.

Saudi Arabia are given a 9.3% likelihood of changing into the primary non-CONCACAF winners, whereas Panama (5.3%) and Jamaica (4.8%) are the opposite exterior bets.